seprah.com
Aug 3

Forecasting

Since the dawn of time, people have tried to predict the future.  Whether it was ancient Greek astrologers, gypsies or weathermen, elaborate systems have been set up to forecast what was going to happen.  Businesspeople do it too, they just think that because they use Microsoft Excel, that their forecasts are superior. One of the underlying factors to our current crisis was a failure of business models to accurately predict the entire collapse of our financial system.  To that, I say it’s been pretty obvious from the beginning that no one can ever truly know what will happen.  Even arrogant executives.

In MBA school, I learned forecasting.  Since I had already gotten in practice learning astrology and tarot when I was a teenager, I figured it wouldn’t be that rough.  And really, now that I know the fundamentals of it, it isn’t really as scary as it was last year as I was trying to catch up in statistics.  Which is good, because this summer, one of my large projects is forecasting how well Drug X will do with certain other drugs in combination.

Unfortunately, the background data keeps changing, and with it, the forecast.  I am presenting all my projects on Thursday, and am still not clear on what I should do or say for it above “these combinations will be your best bet.” Which, I guess, is the point after all.  But I am increasingly nervous because by now I usually have a presentation in the bag and now I am still working on the project at what feels like the 11th hour.  I feel like whipping out an ephemeris with all the assumptions I am making.  What is a little scary to me (and maybe it’s because I will never be a businessey businessperson) is that this is how it usually works.  In business, you make up data based on assumptions to help you make the best decision.

I think I was better off with the Tarot.

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